48. Cognitive biases in risk management – Overconfidence – Alex Sidorenko

The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person’s subjective confidence in his or her judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high.

Throughout the research literature, overconfidence has been defined in three distinct ways: (1) overestimation of one’s actual performance; (2) overplacement of one’s performance relative to others; and (3) overprecision in expressing unwarranted certainty in the accuracy of one’s beliefs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect

TESTS:
http://www.tim-richardson.net/misc/estimation_quiz.html
http://confidence.success-equation.com/

 

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