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48. Cognitive biases in risk management - Overconfidence - Alex Sidorenko

Posted: January 24, 2019
Category: Risk management , Video
Comments: 0

The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in his or her judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high.

Throughout the research literature, overconfidence has been defined in three distinct ways: (1) overestimation of one's actual performance; (2) overplacement of one's performance relative to others; and (3) overprecision in expressing unwarranted certainty in the accuracy of one's beliefs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect

TESTS:
http://www.tim-richardson.net/misc/estimation_quiz.html
http://confidence.success-equation.com/

 

Help spread the messages in this guide by sharing it with your colleagues  https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323254437_GUIDE_TO_EFFECTIVE_RISK_MANAGEMENT_30

More information about RISK-ACADEMY, our training courses and services at www.riskacademy.blog

 

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