Chancification Webinars – training for risk managers interested in quant risk analysis

Welcome to the Chance Age. Dr. Sam L. Savage’s Two-Part Webinar Series on Chancification (includes ChanceCalc software)

To highlight Dr. Savage’s new book, Chancification: How to Fix the Flaw of Averages (now available in paperback) and the recent technology that it describes, Dr. Savage has developed two new webinars.

As with all his presentations, no statistical background is required. However, for those who have had a stats class and as a result are suffering from Post-Traumatic Statistics Disorder (PTSD), these webinars will provide a cure.

The webinar series includes two sequential 1-hour webinars, Give Chance a Chance and The Probability Power Grid. Attendees will have the option of choosing the time slot for each webinar during registration.

The cost is $300 and includes:

5% discount for RISK-ACADEMY readers: https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/chancification-webinars and use code 5RISK

Give Chance a Chance (1 hr.)

Offered at the following dates/times (all times PDT):
Wednesday May 25, 2022, 10:00AM or 5:00PM
Thursday June 23, 2022, 10:00AM or 5:00PM

Topics covered include:

  • The Flaw of Averages
  • Chance-informed decisions in
    • Project Management
    • Military Readiness
    • Risk Management
    • Planning for Pandemic Surges
  • How to use ChanceCalc (full version provided to all registrants)
  • Jump-starting your own chance-informed applications
    • Participants are urged to discuss their own potential applications of Chancification. Dr. Savage will suggest the first steps, which you may share at the 2nd webinar.

The Probability Power Grid (1 hr.)

Offered at the following dates/times (all times PDT):
Wednesday, June 1, 2022, 10:00AM or 5:00PM
Thursday, June 30, 2022, 10:00AM or 5:00PM

Topics covered include:

  • Introduction to the open SIPmath™ 3.0 Standard
    • Doug Hubbard’s HDR Generator
    • Tom Keelin’s Metalog Distribution
  • Generating SIP Libraries
    • with the SIPmath Tools
    • from @RISK, Crystal Ball, or any other Monte Carlo software
    • online (passcode to online SIP Generator provided to all registrants)
  • Jump-starting your own chance-informed applications (part 2)
    • Dr. Savage will describe steps for developing SIP Libraries for registrants’ application ideas.

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