Enhancing Expert Judgments in Risk Management: A Deep Dive into SME Estimations #RAW2023

Risk management is an intricate dance of analysis, prediction, and mitigation. Central to this process is the role of Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), whose judgments are pivotal in estimating potential risks and their impacts. But how accurate are these expert estimations? Does continuous training and hands-on experience refine their predictive prowess? And when multiple SMEs weigh in, what’s the best method to consolidate their insights?

Join us in this enlightening workshop as we delve into groundbreaking research that highlights some of the prevalent challenges in expert risk assessments and offers solutions for improvement. We’ll explore the transformative effects of “calibration” training and introduce the innovative “FrankenSME” algorithms. These algorithms, designed to amalgamate insights from multiple SMEs, have been shown to surpass simple averaging techniques and even outshine the predictions of your top-performing individual SME.

As the field of risk management continually evolves, staying updated with the latest research is crucial, especially for those who rely heavily on the subjective judgments of SMEs. This session promises to equip attendees with the latest methodologies and insights, ensuring that your organization’s risk management strategies are both informed and optimized. Don’t miss out on this opportunity to elevate your risk management approach to new heights!


About the speaker

Douglas Hubbard, Founder/President, Hubbard Decision Research. Doug Hubbard founded the uniquely powerful and proven Applied Information Economics (AIE) method. He is an entrepreneur, an accomplished consultant and an author of five books. Mr. Hubbard has transformed Risk Management into a competitive advantage for his clients across the globe.

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