REPLAY: Mapping the (real) world: How causal maps furnish a perfect interface between the world and our models of it. #riskawarenessweek2019

A crucial challenge in using quantitative risk models to inform decisions is to find an interface that shows the relationship between the model and the real world it represents. A model should provide transparency and insight. Too much mathematics will occlude that clarity for all but the most mathematically articulate, but too little risks turning the model into a black box and abandoning the insight the model was built to provide in the first place.

A causal map or influence diagram illustrates the elements of a model and the fundamental relationships between them. Causality provides a natural language to discuss how interventions – decisions – propagate down causal chains to effect outcomes. A causal map represents mathematical relationships without mathematics, allowing stakeholders to take ownership of the scope of a model, the data that conditions it as well as the metrics that monitor and validate it, without getting tied down in notation.

This presentation will introduce the basic concepts of causal mapping and illustrate with simple examples how they can be used to build risk models.

This is a must watch session for anyone working in risk management and a great foundation for the whole week. Make sure you sign up!

About Graeme

Advisor to executive management on strategy and portfolio analysis, risk and project management. Expert in mathematical modelling of uncertainty and decision analysis.

Check out other risk management books

The Standard for Risk Management in Portfolios, Programs, and Projects
Fundamentals of Risk Management: Understanding, Evaluating and Implementing Effective Risk Management
Implementing Enterprise Risk Management: From Methods to Applications (Wiley Finance)


RISK-ACADEMY offers online courses

+ Buy now

Informed Risk Taking

Learn 15 practical steps on integrating risk management into decision making, business processes, organizational culture and other activities!

+ Buy now

ISO31000 Integrating Risk Management

Alex Sidorenko, known for his risk management blog, has created a 25-step program to integrate risk management into decision making, core business processes and the overall culture of the organization.

+ Buy now

Управление рисками

В этом коротком и очень увлекательном курсе, Алексей Сидоренко расскажет о причинах внедрения риск менеджмента, об особенностях принятия управленческих решений в ситуации неопределенности и изменениях в новом стандарте ИСО 31000:2018.


Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.