Risk Modelling Game 3.0

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800.00 400.00

The game is focused around risk modeling, requiring participants to identify and validate management assumptions, identify relevant risks, establish ranges and select possible distributions for each assumption, perform Monte Carlo simulation using free Vose ModelRisk and present the final results. All this has to be performed in limited time and with incomplete information… just like in real life. And just to add a little bit of drama, like in real life participants have to deal with unexpected “black swans” during the game.

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Description

We have created an amazing business game to teach non-financial management and staff how to perform risk modeling on a day to day management decisions.

You will have to play a role of an aircraft engine manufacturing company. Your team has prepared a business case for a multimillion-dollar plant modernization. Unfortunately, the project plan has just been rejected by the Board, so you only have a couple of hours to conduct in-depth risk analysis and present updated a business case to the Board.

The game is focused around risk modeling, requiring participants to identify and validate management assumptions, identify relevant risks, establish ranges and select possible distributions for each assumption, perform Monte Carlo simulation using Vose ModelRisk and present the final results. All this has to be performed in limited time and with incomplete information… just like in real life. And just to add a little bit of drama, like in real life participants have to deal with unexpected “black swans” during the game.

The aim of the game is to prepare risk analysis for a multimillion plant modernization investment project. The team with the highest risk-adjusted rate of return wins.  

  • All participants are split up into teams of 5 people. There is an unlimited number of teams that can play
  • Each team member receives a playing card with their role (CEO, CFO, risk manager, board member, etc.)
  • Teams must make difficult investment decisions, like identify management assumptions that they are going to validate and analyze going forward, determine ranges and possible distribution types for each assumption that they chose to include in risk analysis, perform risk analysis and so on
  • Step by step each team turns their old business case into a full risk model
  • Quality and accuracy of risk modeling have a big impact on the outcome of the game
  • Teams that try to ignore or hide risks get disqualified, to keep the game honest.

The game is available for immediate download. 

Online set contains:

  • Downloadable playing cards (unlimited number of teams)
  • Downloadable instructions for the facilitator
  • Game presentation, including sound and animations
  • Downloadable handouts for the game
  • Financial model (MS Excel) with Vose ModelRisk to run the game

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