https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/risk-based-decision-making/
Matrix style risk analysis are sure to fail you when it really matters, such as when you plan a daring criminal venture.
This quantitative risk assessment workshop is an introduction for people who are not risk analysts or for qualitative risk managers that are willing to dive in.
We will tackle how we could break down our “business problem” in a model, leverage 5 simple distributions to add uncertainty to the model when you don’t have all the data you wish for and finally confirm which strategy we should pursue to achieve the objectives of our team of crooks.
You may even use this type of thinking to non-criminal business problems!
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/risk-based-decision-making/
Check out other decision making books
RISK-ACADEMY offers online courses

Informed Risk Taking
Learn 15 practical steps on integrating risk management into decision making, business processes, organizational culture and other activities!

ISO31000 Integrating Risk Management
Alex Sidorenko, known for his risk management blog http://www.riskacademy.blog, has created a 25-step program to integrate risk management into decision making, core business processes and the overall culture of the organization.

Advanced Risk Governance
This course gives guidance, motivation, critical information, and practical case studies to move beyond traditional risk governance, helping ensure risk management is not a stand-alone process but a change driver for business.