Managing healthcare resources under uncertain COVID-19 surges is difficult and it is tempting to plan for surges in demand based on the average or best guesses of contagion forecast models. Unfortunately, this leads to systematic errors induced by the Flaw of Averages.
We will show how the discipline of probability management can transform the uncertainty in forecasts into actionable data for making chance-informed resource decisions with your native spreadsheet.
SAM SAVAGE
Dr. Sam L. Savage is the author of The Flaw of Averages and Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, PG&E, Wells Fargo, Kaiser Permanente and others.
ENG-WEE ETHAN YEO
Eng-Wee Ethan Yeo volunteers as the Assistant Director of Technology and Standards at ProbabilityManagement.org. He currently serves as Principal, Technology Risk Modeling & Methodology at Kaiser Permanente. He is responsible for modeling, simulating and assessing non-financial technology risks to support decision making.
Check out other decision making books
RISK-ACADEMY offers online courses
Informed Risk Taking
Learn 15 practical steps on integrating risk management into decision making, business processes, organizational culture and other activities!
ISO31000 Integrating Risk Management
Alex Sidorenko, known for his risk management blog http://www.riskacademy.blog, has created a 25-step program to integrate risk management into decision making, core business processes and the overall culture of the organization.
Advanced Risk Governance
This course gives guidance, motivation, critical information, and practical case studies to move beyond traditional risk governance, helping ensure risk management is not a stand-alone process but a change driver for business.
