Managing healthcare resources under uncertain COVID-19 surges is difficult and it is tempting to plan for surges in demand based on the average or best guesses of contagion forecast models. Unfortunately, this leads to systematic errors induced by the Flaw of Averages.
We will show how the discipline of probability management can transform the uncertainty in forecasts into actionable data for making chance-informed resource decisions with your native spreadsheet.
Dr. Sam L. Savage is the author of The Flaw of Averages and Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, PG&E, Wells Fargo, Kaiser Permanente and others.
ENG-WEE ETHAN YEO
Eng-Wee Ethan Yeo volunteers as the Assistant Director of Technology and Standards at ProbabilityManagement.org. He currently serves as Principal, Technology Risk Modeling & Methodology at Kaiser Permanente. He is responsible for modeling, simulating and assessing non-financial technology risks to support decision making.