RAW2021 – Practical steps to enrich risk analysis with scenario planning

In the world of risk management it is increasingly realized that most of the effort expended primarily targets near-term operational risks. Risk management activities are therefore usually confined to the ‘ongoing’ part of the business cycle and target much less the strategy development and new investment phases.

And yet most value gains and losses occur because of strategic choices and investment decisions. Scenario Planning is a methodology that provides guidance for such strategy decisions and in particular gives insight in ‘how things hang together’. It thus considers how the future of the business environment, with all its risks, might unfold.

In the workshop we will provide some practical guidance of how to map out the relationships between uncertain ‘driving forces’ or ‘risks’. We will summarize some methods to develop narratives that describe possible coherent futures and how these may be used in underpinning strategic decisions.


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