For many planning and decision making exercises under risk and uncertainty, we often need to populate evaluation models with numerous parameter values. These may be difficult to obtain within the constraints of our immediate time and financial budgets and operational realities such as:
Experiments are very difficult or costly to run in a timely manner.
The system depends on the complex interaction of a number of driving variables that are difficult if not impossible to isolate while still maintaining the integrity of the system under scrutiny.
Running experiments might present ethical constraints or barriers that could lead to irreversible harm to study subjects.
The Lens Model developed by Egon Brunswick and Kenneth Hammond provides a structured method to elicit parameters for descriptor variables in these situations from subject matter experts.
In this discussion, I present how we use the Lens Model to estimate the probability of experiencing a reportable ransomware event with an array of cybersecurity controls. This information can be used to optimize the chosen decision space for security controls. I also show how we identify the best SMEs using scoring tools that limit the effects of bias and noise. Of course, the process and tools presented can be applied generically to any complex systems analysis that are also subject to the methodological constraints described above.
Over my twenty-five year career, I have provided solutions to my clients’ complex problems by employing creative thinking and advanced quantitative, business, engineering, systems analysis, and training. My experience spans diverse industrial and commercial fields including energy, utilities, logistics & transportation, pharmaceuticals, electronics manufacturing, telecommunications, IT, and commercial real estate. I aim to introduce and develop within client organizations the guidance, processes, and systems that improve the firm’s ability to anticipate and manage risks and capture upside value associated with strategic planning, capital allocation, and project selection & management initiatives.
Alex has created a short bootcamp designed to help companies implement quantitative risk management. Imagine saving the company so much money that investing in risk management competencies and resources becomes a no brainer for the executives. That's exactly what Alex Sidorenko did at a global $10B chemical company and he has been kind enough to share his top tips and lessons learned with you each week. Sign up now!