WATCH REPLAY: Successful use of risk modelling and simulations in public private partnerships – Yehuda Sapir

Civil engineering mega projects hardly exercises efficient and effective risk management in general, and lacks utilizing advanced simulations such as Monte Carlo, to support decision making. The webinar will demonstrate successful utilization of these simulations, along the project’s life cycle and road map, supporting decision making in critical points such as contingency decision. The aim of the webinar is to demonstrate simplification of these simulations, to be used by project managers and decision makers, in a friendly manner, in real time during meetings, to ease and enhance decision making.

Few months ago one of the largest government owned companies (dealing with infrastructure longitudinal civil engineering projects) was asked by the MOT to provide, as part of the RFT (Ready for Tender approval) supporting data based on a statistical modeling, to assess and validate the contingency allocated to the project. This was a critical milestone since MOT would not let open bidders’ proposals without successful validation of the contingency.

During the whole process we’ve been dealing with scepticism, biased information, not always reliable, difficulties to assess the ranges of each risk (Pessimistic, Most Likely, Optimistic), fears from the process itself and its results, should I say – fears from total failure, which will lead to not opening the proposals, crisis.

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