RAW2020 is less than a month away and I wanted to share something valuable with you. During the conference you will hear many of the speakers talk about Risk Management 2 (RM2), decision science, decision quality, probability theory and other terms unfamiliar to many risk practitioners or business decision makers. These 3 things will help… Continue reading Recommended pre-reading for the RAW2020 conference
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/managing-irreducible-risks-through-portfolio-analysis-hedging-and-diversification/ The success of quantitative risk management rests on our ability to assess probabilities, but what is a probability anyway? How do you know if your assessments are any good and what does it even mean to say there’s a 50% chance of rain tomorrow? A pragmatic approach to these questions quickly takes us in… Continue reading RAW2020: Probability for Pragmatists
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/addressing-the-failure-of-risk-quantification-moving-from-speculating-on-project-complexity-to-actually-quantifying-it/ This report is based on the author’s recent book ‘Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies’ published by Oxford University Press this year. Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both Monte Carlo and especially parametric methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in the… Continue reading Addressing the Failure of Risk Quantification: Moving from Speculating on Project Complexity to Actually Quantifying It
The COVID-19 pandemic is taking a heavy toll on people’s health, lives, and societies. Lots of us have felt worried about the coronavirus pandemic, and everyone will feel differently about the changes to lockdown restrictions. If you have lost a job as a result of COVID-19 we would like to offer you free full access… Continue reading Free access to RAW2020 to anyone who lost a job due to COVID-19
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/covid-19-how-did-we-get-here-where-and-how-do-we-go-from-here/ The spread of viral disease (COVID-19) was the last snowflake that caused the avalanche of global proportion. The inter-relationship of nonfinancial risks resulted in the new reality that we are now living through. This session will examine the inter-relationships of global risks and trends that existed at the end of 2019, and will demonstrate… Continue reading RAW2020: COVID-19: How did we get here? Where and how do we go from here?
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/complexity-moving-beyond-talk/ Most of us have read about or heard talks on “complexity”; its nature, its impact on projects and ways to deal with it. Many have also worked on complex projects that are all too often failures, if not disasters. What has been missing are practical ways to measure complexity and quantify its impacts; we… Continue reading RAW2020: Complexity: Moving Beyond Talk
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/risk-awareness-and-culture/ If the Covid19 pandemic has revealed anything, it is that many individuals and organisations suffer from the illusion of control – that is, that certainty is largely achievable and desirable. While (most!) risk professionals know that this isn’t the case, a vast majority of individuals don’t. However, when uncertainty is revealed as a constant… Continue reading RAW2020: Death, Taxes and Uncertainty – The Myth of Control
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/uncertainty-based-capacity-optimization/ Most companies apply capacity planning to define when to invest in what equipment in order to be able to meet demand. For most companies, this is done using a sales plan/forecast which is then regarded as equalling the future demand based upon which a capacity profile is calculated. Uncertainty is catered for by applying… Continue reading RAW2020: Uncertainty based capacity optimization
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/risk-based-decision-making/ Matrix style risk analysis are sure to fail you when it really matters, such as when you plan a daring criminal venture. This quantitative risk assessment workshop is an introduction for people who are not risk analysts or for qualitative risk managers that are willing to dive in. We will tackle how we could… Continue reading RAW2020: Introduction to using QRA for nefarious decision making.
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/the-failure-of-risk-management/ Choices to make for your company or organization can seem overwhelming at times and the answers to hard questions may seem impossible to find. Whether your uncertain decisions are in a small company assessing a critical market opportunity, a Fortune 100 company implementing an enterprise-wide process to prioritize an entire portfolio of projects, or… Continue reading RAW2020: The Failure of Risk Management