Projected Revenue Estimation from Crowdsourced Information on Statistical Errors

By Sam Savage (bio in sidebar) and Shayne Kavanagh (bio) It is difficult for municipal financial officers to accurately estimate their tax revenues, especially during uncertain times such as the recession of 2008 to 2010 and the current COVID-19 pandemic. Customarily forecasts are based on a single number, with no indication of its chances of… Continue reading Projected Revenue Estimation from Crowdsourced Information on Statistical Errors

3 steps to apply Monte-Carlo simulations to any investment project decision

Risk management 2 shouldn’t be difficult. So I started on a quest to come up with a simple methodology for quantitative risk analysis that will actually improve decision making. This is still work in progress, so any comments and suggestions please send them to me or write below the article. Also don’t forget, RAW2020 is… Continue reading 3 steps to apply Monte-Carlo simulations to any investment project decision

RAW2020: Escalation: The Forgotten Risk – John Hollmann

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/escalation-the-forgotten-risk/ Every project cost estimate includes some allowance for price escalation in its midst. However, few recognize escalation for the potentially devastating risk that it can be. For example, from 2005 to 2008 the price to get a process plant built increased by 50% at a time of negligible inflation. Economic cycles like these are… Continue reading RAW2020: Escalation: The Forgotten Risk – John Hollmann