https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/create-an-excel-model-and-evaluate-using-decision-analysis-and-monte-carlo-practices-the-case-study-framed-in-session-1/ Join Brian Putt and Alex Sidorenko in this second session where we create and Excel model for the case study framed in Session 1 using Decision Quality practices and Monte Carlo to complete the evaluation. Watch session 1 first at https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/experience-a-practical-example-of-applying-decision-quality-framing-practices-to-a-case-study/ Alex, acting as the subject matter expert (SME) reviews and adjust the inputs… Continue reading RAW2020: Create an Excel model and evaluate using Decision Analysis and Monte Carlo practices the case study framed in Session 1
The game is focused around risk modeling, requiring participants to identify and validate management assumptions, identify relevant risks, establish ranges and select possible distributions for each assumption, perform Monte Carlo simulation using free Vose ModelRisk and present the final results. All this has to be performed in limited time and with incomplete information… just like in real life. And just to add a little bit of drama, like in real life participants have to deal with unexpected “black swans” during the game.