So much has been written about risk management and yet most of it is RM1. Before the year end I went on the quest to find worthwhile RM2 blogs moving the risk profession within the non-financial sector forward.
#1 Nassim Taleb
Nassim Taleb is an author of the INCERTO a philosophical and practical essay on uncertainty (Skin In the Game, Antifragile , The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and The Bed of Procrustes), a (so far) 5-volume“investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk,and decision making when we don’t understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions in nonoverlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order.”
Nassim Taleb irregularly publishes articles and video posts and is worth following for anyone in the risk profession. His blogs are: https://nassimtaleb.org/ (unofficial) and https://nntaleb.medium.com/ (official)
Latest RSS feed:
- Stephen Wolfram visits RWRI 18 (Summer Workshop) [PRIVATE]
Workshop organized by the Real World Risk Institute. The workshop is an intense 10-day online program, and the 18th edition took place from July 10-21, 2023. This video discusses the capabilities and [...] - Nassim on CNBC Squawk Box: Crypto is a cult coupled with a financial instrument
As a scientific advisor for Universa Investments and author of ‘The Black Swan’, Nassim Taleb recently appeared on ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the current state of the markets and economy. During [...] - [Twitter] Scott Patterson and Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Chaos Kings, Black Swans and the Precautionary Principle
On CNBC’s ‘The Exchange’, host Kelly Evans engages in a discussion with Scott Patterson and Nassim Nicholas Taleb on how Wall Street traders made billions by making big bets around major catastr [...] - Bloomberg: Nassim Taleb on Inflation, Global Financial Markets & Bitcoin Isn’t Good for Money Laundering
In this discussion, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a renowned scholar and risk analyst, was interviewed by Tom Keene at the Bloomberg Invest New York 2023 event. Taleb discussed a variety of pressing financia [...] - [Bloomberg Podcasts] Nassim Taleb on What Bitcoiners, Anti-Vaxxers, and Deadlift Maxis All Get Wrong
In this Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast episode, hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway have a wide-ranging conversation with Nassim Taleb, well-known author of Antifragile, The Black Swan, and Fooled by R [...]
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#2 Sam Savage
Dr. Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of Probability Management.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. Dr. Savage is author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012). He is an Adjunct Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University and a Fellow of Cambridge University’s Judge Business School. He is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an auditable data array for conveying uncertainty. Dr. Savage received his Ph.D. in computational complexity from Yale University.
Sam is a regular speaker at RAW, read his blog here: https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/blog
Latest RSS feed:
- The Three R’s of The Chance Age
Recognize, Reduce, Respond By Dr. Sam L. Savage Just as Readin’, ‘Ritin’, and ‘Rithmetic were the pillars of public education, as encouraged in the United States in the early 1800’s, the Cha [...] - In Memory of Harry Markowitz
By Dr. Sam L. Savage August 24, 1927 - June 22, 2023 It is with deep sadness that I announce the passing of Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics, father of Modern Portfolio Theory, and co-f [...] - When You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know
By Dr. Sam L. Savage. Illustration by John Button. In the mid-1990s when Ben Ball and I began applying Markowitz Portfolio Theory to petroleum exploration (see Chapter 28 in The Flaw of Averages: Why [...] - The Multivariate Metalog
By Sam L. Savage (Free webinar with Tom Keelin on the Multivariate Metalog Distribution, May 17, 2023, 8:00 AM PT) Over the years I have blogged numerous times about the Metalog quantile functions, de [...] - Top Gun BayesOmatic
By Sam L. Savage In this blog I will discuss some technical details of the BayesOmatic in the Top Gun model introduced in the last blog . Those familiar with me know that I would not have called the g [...]
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#3 Doug Hubbard
Hubbard Decision Research has developed quantitative analysis solutions to Information Technology investments, military logistics, entertainment media, major policy decisions, and business operations. Customers range from small businesses to Fortune 500 companies. A range of organizations which need to measure the immeasurable and make big decisions without perfect information have been using the methods of Doug Hubbard since 1997.
Doug is a regular speaker at RAW, read his blog here: https://hubbardresearch.com/news-and-insights/
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- Calibrating Chat GPT for Its Overconfidence
In a previous article, we measured how calibrated Chat GPT 4 was at providing a 90% confidence interval. During the experiment, after explaining what is meant by a 90% confidence interval, Chat GPT wo [...] - ERM Risk Models for an Insurance Carrier
Client: Trustmark Insurance Industry: Enterprise Risk Management (Insurance) Objective: To develop a comprehensive and quantitative risk management system that integrates various dimensions of risk. [...] - Is ChatGPT as Overconfident as Humans?
“It’s not what we don’t know that hurts, it’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.” The quote above is often attributed to Mark Twain. Ironically, the authorship of this quote being s [...] - A Quant’s Approach to Buying vs Renting
Tab 1…., Tab 2…., Tab 1.., Tab 2. I was anxiously clicking back and forth between two tabs on Zillow.com for the DC area. One shows the “For Sale” homes in a popular young professional neighbo [...] - Herd Immunity and State Health Departments
Misallocation of Vaccines Leads to 75,000 Additional US Deaths…At Least As we prepare to roll out the vaccine across the United States, we are faced with an unparalleled opportunity. But there is al [...]
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#4 David Vose
Vose Software was founded by David Vose and Timour Koupeev, two friends who had built their careers providing quantitative risk analysis consulting to governments and businesses in a wide range of fields. David and Timour found that the risk analysis software available at the time were very limited in the capabilities they provided, making it a struggle to build risk analysis models that were compact, easy to understand and a good reflection of the problems they were trying to describe. Vose Software was created to offer a much richer choice of risk modeling tools.
David is a regular speaker at RAW and is famous for his fun and sarcastic take on his management, read his blog here http://blog.vosesoftware.com/
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#5 Graeme Keith
Stochastic ApS was launched in October 2019 as a vehicle for its founder Dr. Graeme Keith to support companies and institutions looking to make best use of their data and expertise both by incorporating practical, fit-for purpose mathematical models into their business and strategic decision-making processes, and by helping to ensure that the models and analytics they commission and utilize are fit-for-purpose and optimally deployed.
Informed by more than 20 years industrial and commercial experience, including a series of senior management positions in small, medium and multinational companies, Graeme has developed an approach to mathematical modelling that distills elements from probability theory and causal analysis, together with insights from his study of scientific methods and best modelling practice. The result is a modelling paradigm, specifically designed for tackling business and policy challenges, that is practical, insightful, fit-for-purpose and and cost effective.
Graeme is a regular speaker at RAW, read his blog here: https://www.stochastic.dk/articles
Latest RSS feed:
- Why your probability tribe matters
How we think about probability affects how we practice probability Photo by Guillaume Didelet on Unsplash In my article The Two Schools of Probability, I argue that despite all the squabbling, there [...] - Data’s dangerous dogmas
The dogmas of data science are harmless for data-led companies whose value mechanisms are a by-product of their data. But companies whose data are a by-product of their value mechanisms need a more fl [...] - ImPERTinence
The PERT distribution is a beta distribution, stretched out, ripped up and dumped down far from home. Poor thing. No actual beta distributions were harmed in preparing this article. All drawings by t [...] - Black Swan. Red Herring.
Black Swans call for a radical reappraisal of the way we model, but we are just as deluded about their significance as we are about our ability to explain and predict them. According to Nassim Nicho [...] - The Democratization of Mathematics
Archimedes (but maybe Euclid) democratizing mathematics. Detail from Raphael’s The School of Athens, 1509–1511, fresco at the Raphael Rooms, Apostolic Palace, Vatican City. Wikimedia Commons. The [...]
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#6 Norman Marks
Norman has been a practitioner and thought leader in internal audit, risk management, and governance for a long time. He led large and small internal audit departments, been the Chief Risk Officer and Chief Compliance Officer, and managed IT security and governance functions. Norman retired in early 2013, he blogs, writes, trains, speaks and mentors individuals and organizations on risk and internal audit.
Norman is a regular speaker at RAW, read his blog here: http://normanmarks.wordpress.com
Latest RSS feed:
- A risk-based approach to auditing governance processes
One of the significant changes in the draft Global Internal Audit Standards (GIAS) is the removal of these “must” statements. 2110 – Governance The internal audit activity must assess and make a [...] - What are good risk reports?
Alexei Sidorenko[1] asked “what should an awesome risk report look like?” It’s an excellent question. He wisely says: If we wanted to really make a difference to decision makers we would switch [...] - Conflicting research and thoughts on ESG
Three parts to this post: What is ESG? What are those conflicting reports? What does this all mean for practitioners? Part 1 OK, it’s time for me to ‘fess up. I am confused by “ESG”. It seems [...] - Do practitioners practice what they preach?
As practitioners, we talk about understanding and incorporating risk (including opportunities) into management practices, both strategic and tactical. But do we practice what we preach? Let me take th [...] - Useful ethics training for internal auditors
Yes, it is possible! While I have challenged the value of and the need for the IIA’s Standard requiring two hours annually of ethics training for every internal auditor, it is possible to have train [...]
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#7 Grant Purdy
Grant Purdy has specialised in the practical application of risk management to support decision making for nearly 40 years, working across a wide range of industries and in over 25 countries.
Grant has been a member of the Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand Joint Technical Committee on Risk Management for over 14 years and was its chair for seven. He is co-author of the 2004 version of AS/NZS 4360 and has authored many other risk management handbooks, guides and books. He was also the nominated expert for Australia on the Working Group that wrote ISO 31000 and Guide 73 and later Head of Delegation for Australia on ISO PC 262 that will revise ISO 31000.
Grant is a regular speaker at RAW, read Broadleafs blog and case studies here: https://broadleaf.com.au/resource-material/
Latest RSS feed:
- Dr Dale Cooper honoured to receive the Risk Engineer Achievement Award 2023
Dr Dale Cooper was honoured to receive the Risk Engineer Achievement Award 2023, presented at the biennial Risk Engineering Society Conference, RISK 2023, held in Brisbane on 7-8 September 2023. In ac [...] - Quantitative risk analysis and project governance: Risk Engineering Society Conference, RISK 2023
Dr Dale Cooper spoke at the Risk Engineering Society Conference, RISK 2023, held in Brisbane Meanjin on 7-8 September 2023. His presentation summarised the role of quantitative analysis of uncertainty [...] - Dr Dale Cooper nominated for Risk Engineer Achievement Award 2023
Dr Dale Cooper is honoured to be nominated for an Engineers Australia People Award, in the category Risk Engineer Achievement Award. The award will be presented to the successful finalist at the bienn [...] - 2nd edition of Dr David Hillson’s ‘The Risk Management Handbook’ published
Dr Dale Cooper contributed Chapter 8, 'Project, Programme and Portfolio Risk Management' to the second edition of 'The Risk Management Handbook', edited by our friend and collabora [...] - Dr Dale Cooper: Updated chapter in Dr David Hillson’s ‘The Risk Management Handbook’ 2nd edition
Dr Dale Cooper has contributed an updated chapter to the second edition of Dr David Hillson's book, *The Risk Management Handbook*. The chapter is titled *Project, programme and portfolio risk ma [...]
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#8 RISK-ACADEMY
Controversial thoughts about modern day risk management in non-financial companies, training and consulting services right here at https://riskacademy.blog/
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- Why risk awareness and risk-based thinking are essential for decision-makers
If there’s one thing that the pace of modern business has taught us, it’s that the unexpected should be expected. From market shifts to sudden changes in technology or regulations,… Continue rea [...] - Wrapping up #RAW2023: if you missed this amazing event, you can still watch replays and ask speaker questions
As we close the chapter on another successful Risk Awareness Week, it’s time to reflect on the event’s impact and share some key takeaways. This year, we’ve set new records and… Continue read [...] - Beyond the conference: RAW2023’s long-term impact on your professional network
As we wrap up this series, we’d like to take a moment to highlight the larger picture. Attending Risk Awareness Week 2023 is more than gaining access to a wealth… Continue reading Beyond the confe [...] - Enhancing Risk Governance through Effective Board Compliance Reporting #RAW2023
An effective Board compliance reporting is crucial for organizational success. Technological advancements, the ongoing discussion on Artificial Intelligence (AI), an extended understanding of Board me [...] - Adventurer Paula Reid completes epic journey from Odessa to Chornobyl, raising vital funds for Siobhan’s Trust in Ukraine
In an awe-inspiring feat of strength, determination, and compassion, cyclist Paula Reid has successfully completed a challenging cycle in Ukraine, spanning the country, South to North, from Odessa to [...]
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Check out other risk management books
RISK-ACADEMY offers online courses
Informed Risk Taking
Learn 15 practical steps on integrating risk management into decision making, business processes, organizational culture and other activities!
ISO31000 Integrating Risk Management
Alex Sidorenko, known for his risk management blog http://www.riskacademy.blog, has created a 25-step program to integrate risk management into decision making, core business processes and the overall culture of the organization.
Advanced Risk Governance
This course gives guidance, motivation, critical information, and practical case studies to move beyond traditional risk governance, helping ensure risk management is not a stand-alone process but a change driver for business.
