Risk Management in Public-Private Partnership and Other Major Infrastructure Projects

by Alex Sidorenko, Vladimir Kilinkarov and Alexey Belkov All of life is the management of risk, not its elimination. Walter Wriston, former chairman and CEO of Citicorp Any public infrastructure project, and especially a public-private partnership (PPP) project, is a complex project with many different obligations. It weaves together the interests of a wide range… Continue reading Risk Management in Public-Private Partnership and Other Major Infrastructure Projects

Recommended pre-reading for the RAW2020 conference

RAW2020 is less than a month away and I wanted to share something valuable with you. During the conference you will hear many of the speakers talk about Risk Management 2 (RM2), decision science, decision quality, probability theory and other terms unfamiliar to many risk practitioners or business decision makers. These 3 things will help… Continue reading Recommended pre-reading for the RAW2020 conference

RAW2020: Probability for Pragmatists

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/managing-irreducible-risks-through-portfolio-analysis-hedging-and-diversification/ The success of quantitative risk management rests on our ability to assess probabilities, but what is a probability anyway? How do you know if your assessments are any good and what does it even mean to say there’s a 50% chance of rain tomorrow? A pragmatic approach to these questions quickly takes us in… Continue reading RAW2020: Probability for Pragmatists

Addressing the Failure of Risk Quantification: Moving from Speculating on Project Complexity to Actually Quantifying It

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/addressing-the-failure-of-risk-quantification-moving-from-speculating-on-project-complexity-to-actually-quantifying-it/ This report is based on the author’s recent book ‘Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies’ published by Oxford University Press this year. Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both Monte Carlo and especially parametric methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in the… Continue reading Addressing the Failure of Risk Quantification: Moving from Speculating on Project Complexity to Actually Quantifying It

Free access to RAW2020 to anyone who lost a job due to COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic is taking a heavy toll on people’s health, lives, and societies. Lots of us have felt worried about the coronavirus pandemic, and everyone will feel differently about the changes to lockdown restrictions. If you have lost a job as a result of COVID-19 we would like to offer you free full access… Continue reading Free access to RAW2020 to anyone who lost a job due to COVID-19

RAW2020: COVID-19: How did we get here? Where and how do we go from here?

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/covid-19-how-did-we-get-here-where-and-how-do-we-go-from-here/ The spread of viral disease (COVID-19) was the last snowflake that caused the avalanche of global proportion. The inter-relationship of nonfinancial risks resulted in the new reality that we are now living through. This session will examine the inter-relationships of global risks and trends that existed at the end of 2019, and will demonstrate… Continue reading RAW2020: COVID-19: How did we get here? Where and how do we go from here?

RAW2020: Complexity: Moving Beyond Talk

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/complexity-moving-beyond-talk/ Most of us have read about or heard talks on “complexity”; its nature, its impact on projects and ways to deal with it. Many have also worked on complex projects that are all too often failures, if not disasters. What has been missing are practical ways to measure complexity and quantify its impacts; we… Continue reading RAW2020: Complexity: Moving Beyond Talk

RAW2020: Death, Taxes and Uncertainty – The Myth of Control

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/risk-awareness-and-culture/ If the Covid19 pandemic has revealed anything, it is that many individuals and organisations suffer from the illusion of control – that is, that certainty is largely achievable and desirable. While (most!) risk professionals know that this isn’t the case, a vast majority of individuals don’t. However, when uncertainty is revealed as a constant… Continue reading RAW2020: Death, Taxes and Uncertainty – The Myth of Control

RAW2020: Create an Excel model and evaluate using Decision Analysis and Monte Carlo practices the case study framed in Session 1

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/create-an-excel-model-and-evaluate-using-decision-analysis-and-monte-carlo-practices-the-case-study-framed-in-session-1/ Join Brian Putt and Alex Sidorenko in this second session where we create and Excel model for the case study framed in Session 1 using Decision Quality practices and Monte Carlo to complete the evaluation. Watch session 1 first at https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/experience-a-practical-example-of-applying-decision-quality-framing-practices-to-a-case-study/ Alex, acting as the subject matter expert (SME) reviews and adjust the inputs… Continue reading RAW2020: Create an Excel model and evaluate using Decision Analysis and Monte Carlo practices the case study framed in Session 1

RAW2020: Uncertainty based capacity optimization

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/uncertainty-based-capacity-optimization/ Most companies apply capacity planning to define when to invest in what equipment in order to be able to meet demand. For most companies, this is done using a sales plan/forecast which is then regarded as equalling the future demand based upon which a capacity profile is calculated. Uncertainty is catered for by applying… Continue reading RAW2020: Uncertainty based capacity optimization