The AC Current Standard and First Industrial Power Plant of Chancification
by Sam Savage
ProbabilityManagement.org is proud to announce the first general release of the SIPmath 3.0 Standard for storing virtual SIPs in the universal JSON format. And we are delighted that the latest Analytic Solver from Frontline Systems both reads and writes this format.
The discipline of probability management represents uncertainties as data that obey both the laws of arithmetic and the laws of probability. SIPmath 2.0 accomplished this by storing arrays of thousands of Monte Carlo trials. SIPmath 3.0 accomplishes this with a tiny fraction of the storage. If probability were electricity, then SIPmath 2.0 would be direct current and SIPmath 3.0 would the alternating current that we all use today.
The SIPmath 3.0 Standard uses Doug Hubbard’s HDR random number generator to maintain statistical coherence, generating identical streams of pseudo random numbers across platforms, including native Excel.
These random numbers feed Tom Keelin’s Metalog Distributions, a flexible system for creating an extremely wide range of continuous random variates, including multi-modal.
The Analytic Solver encompasses optimization, machine learning, simulation, and powerful techniques. Its “Deploy Model” allows you to
“create, test and refine probability distributions that should be used across your company — say for exchange rates or commodity prices — using Analytic Solver’s 60+ classical, Metalog, and custom distribution creation tools — then deploy and share them as probability models, following the open Probability Management SIPmath 3.0 standard.”
Using SIPmath 3.0 ensures that you will get the same Monte Carlo trials in ChanceCalc, Python, R, or, if you have the patience, on an abacus. And going the other way, you may generate probability distributions in a wide variety of simulations, which may be imported into Analytic Solver to use with its powerful stochastic optimization engines.
I expect this package to play as central a role in Chancification as the 1895 Tesla/Westinghouse hydro power station at Niagara Falls played in electrification.
© Copyright 2021 Sam L. Savage
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