What is a risk? It’s not what you think it is

If there is one thing I learned as a CRO, it is crucial to understand the nature of each and every risk we have to work with. I will no doubt write a separate article about the mistake of aggregating various risks into a risk register or attempting to use the same methodology to quantify… Continue reading What is a risk? It’s not what you think it is

Benoit Ladouceur – Five distributions that will immediately improve your risk analysis

“It may sound like modelling is a nearly mythical experience where you need to have a firm grasp of arcane mathematics and hermetic financial models to do simulations, but that’s just not the case,” said Benoit Ladouceur, specialist director enterprise risk at VIA Rail Canada. He was giving a practical presentation to an audience at… Continue reading Benoit Ladouceur – Five distributions that will immediately improve your risk analysis

ISO and COSO haven’t got a clue. You can and should quantify compliance risks

Every organisation is required to comply with laws within the countries it operates in, the legal and regulatory requirements vary between different regions adding to the need to have understanding and confidence in the risk management processes in place. Organisations face considerable uncertainty when making decisions and taking actions that may have significant compliance consequences. The management… Continue reading ISO and COSO haven’t got a clue. You can and should quantify compliance risks

Compliance Risk Management – Risk analysis (part 5)

Step 5. Measure the effect of risks on decisions In order to account for the uncertainty both in the consequences of each scenario and its weight, consequence distributions are multiplied by weight distributions using the Monte-Carlo simulation method. Normally 10000 simulation runs should be sufficient for most compliance risks, however more simulation runs may be… Continue reading Compliance Risk Management – Risk analysis (part 5)

Torsten Röhner – Why probability is critical for meaningful financial modelling

Torsten Röhner, founder and managing director of Syconomic, demonstrates why financial models that do not account for probability are virtually meaningless. “Most innovations in financial modelling solve the wrong problem… They solve technical problems instead of overcoming flaws in the methodology,” Torsten Röhner, founder and managing director of Syconomic, told the audience at Risk Awareness… Continue reading Torsten Röhner – Why probability is critical for meaningful financial modelling

Duncan Harwood – Why every risk manager must be using Monte Carlo modelling to evaluate effect of risks

Given the uncertainties businesses have faced as result of the Covid-19 pandemic, it’s hardly surprising many are looking to improve how they do risk management. According to Duncan Harwood, managing director of 2020 Risk Management, introducing Monte Carlo simulation one of the best steps a business can take to improve its risk management processes. Giving… Continue reading Duncan Harwood – Why every risk manager must be using Monte Carlo modelling to evaluate effect of risks

RAW2020: Uncertainty based capacity optimization

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/uncertainty-based-capacity-optimization/ Most companies apply capacity planning to define when to invest in what equipment in order to be able to meet demand. For most companies, this is done using a sales plan/forecast which is then regarded as equalling the future demand based upon which a capacity profile is calculated. Uncertainty is catered for by applying… Continue reading RAW2020: Uncertainty based capacity optimization

3 steps to apply Monte-Carlo simulations to any investment project decision

Risk management 2 shouldn’t be difficult. So I started on a quest to come up with a simple methodology for quantitative risk analysis that will actually improve decision making. This is still work in progress, so any comments and suggestions please send them to me or write below the article. Also don’t forget, RAW2020 is… Continue reading 3 steps to apply Monte-Carlo simulations to any investment project decision

RAW2020: Impact of Covid-19 pandemic outbreak on Top Risks – Joachim Schulte

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/impact-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-top-risks/ This talk shows what has been done to assess the impact of Covid-19 pandemic outbreak on the most important risks of the company (Top Risks). The idea was that risk management should help the company to make difficult decisions during a crisis. The approach is based on quantitative risk management, in particular Monte-Carlo simulation,… Continue reading RAW2020: Impact of Covid-19 pandemic outbreak on Top Risks – Joachim Schulte

RAW2020: Successful use of risk modelling and simulations in public private partnerships – Yehuda Sapir

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/successful-use-of-risk-modelling-and-simulations-in-public-private-partnerships/ Civil engineering mega projects hardly exercises efficient and effective risk management in general, and lacks utilizing advanced simulations such as Monte Carlo, to support decision making. The webinar will demonstrate successful utilization of these simulations, along the project’s life cycle and road map, supporting decision making in critical points such as contingency decision. The… Continue reading RAW2020: Successful use of risk modelling and simulations in public private partnerships – Yehuda Sapir