How to use Value of Information to improve the decision policy in Oil and Gas? – Trygve Botn

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/how-to-use-value-of-information-to-improve-the-decision-policy-in-oil-and-gas/ This live Excel presentation will demonstrate how to: frame a Value of Imperfect Information evaluation of a drilling problem, quantify the frame in a risk model (SIPmath) using continuous variables, solve the problem frame using simulation to establish the decision policy and explain how we reduce downside and possibly increase the upside. We will… Continue reading How to use Value of Information to improve the decision policy in Oil and Gas? – Trygve Botn

3 steps to set corporate risk appetite

Ok, the title is obviously irony. If you have seen any of my posts you will know how sceptical I am of this management fad called risk appetite. I am actually old enough to remember when consultants started pushing this concept pretending it was both new and useful. Anyway, since the concept is unlikely to… Continue reading 3 steps to set corporate risk appetite

The amazing future of risk management – SIPs and SLURPs

  http://ProbabilityManagement.org advocates a corporate framework in which organizations maintain libraries of official distributions for key uncertain quantities, which can be exchanged between model builders so that all models rely on common assumptions. Each univariate Monte Carlo sample is collected into a unit called a Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), which is a textual XML snippet containing a… Continue reading The amazing future of risk management – SIPs and SLURPs

Real life application of quantitative risk analysis, an excellent case study

Can 17 risk managers double their money in just 2 days with no luck and using only quantitative risk analysis? Find out in this short case study. The problem  To test how well quantitative risk analysis performs I wanted a real life situations, where odds were known and the stakes were high. National lottery looked… Continue reading Real life application of quantitative risk analysis, an excellent case study

43. Using gamification in risk management – Alex Sidorenko

Risk Modelling Game 3.0 This game is the result of collaboration between Risk-academy, Palisade, Institute for Strategic Risk Analysis (ISAR) and Deloitte. Together we have created an amazing business game to teach non-financial management and staff how to perform risk modelling on day to day management decisions. You will have to play a role of… Continue reading 43. Using gamification in risk management – Alex Sidorenko

18. My favourite risk management books – Alex Sidorenko

Alex Sidorenko from RISK-ACADEMY talks about the 7 books that influenced his risk management career: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto) – August 23, 2005 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219/ Thinking, Fast and Slow – April 2, 2013 by Daniel Kahneman https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/ Decision Quality: Value Creation… Continue reading 18. My favourite risk management books – Alex Sidorenko

Risk Modelling Game 3.0

The game is focused around risk modeling, requiring participants to identify and validate management assumptions, identify relevant risks, establish ranges and select possible distributions for each assumption, perform Monte Carlo simulation using free Vose ModelRisk and present the final results. All this has to be performed in limited time and with incomplete information… just like in real life. And just to add a little bit of drama, like in real life participants have to deal with unexpected “black swans” during the game.