RAW2020: Uncertainty based capacity optimization

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/uncertainty-based-capacity-optimization/ Most companies apply capacity planning to define when to invest in what equipment in order to be able to meet demand. For most companies, this is done using a sales plan/forecast which is then regarded as equalling the future demand based upon which a capacity profile is calculated. Uncertainty is catered for by applying… Continue reading RAW2020: Uncertainty based capacity optimization

3 steps to apply Monte-Carlo simulations to any investment project decision

Risk management 2 shouldn’t be difficult. So I started on a quest to come up with a simple methodology for quantitative risk analysis that will actually improve decision making. This is still work in progress, so any comments and suggestions please send them to me or write below the article. Also don’t forget, RAW2020 is… Continue reading 3 steps to apply Monte-Carlo simulations to any investment project decision

RAW2020: Impact of Covid-19 pandemic outbreak on Top Risks – Joachim Schulte

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/impact-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-top-risks/ This talk shows what has been done to assess the impact of Covid-19 pandemic outbreak on the most important risks of the company (Top Risks). The idea was that risk management should help the company to make difficult decisions during a crisis. The approach is based on quantitative risk management, in particular Monte-Carlo simulation,… Continue reading RAW2020: Impact of Covid-19 pandemic outbreak on Top Risks – Joachim Schulte

RAW2020: Successful use of risk modelling and simulations in public private partnerships – Yehuda Sapir

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/successful-use-of-risk-modelling-and-simulations-in-public-private-partnerships/ Civil engineering mega projects hardly exercises efficient and effective risk management in general, and lacks utilizing advanced simulations such as Monte Carlo, to support decision making. The webinar will demonstrate successful utilization of these simulations, along the project’s life cycle and road map, supporting decision making in critical points such as contingency decision. The… Continue reading RAW2020: Successful use of risk modelling and simulations in public private partnerships – Yehuda Sapir

RAW2020: Agricultural Risk Analysis: art and science – Ariadna Berger

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/agricultural-risk-analysis-art-and-science/ In Argentina we have been applying risk assessment and management concepts in farming for more than twenty years. Price and yield risk can be managed through diversification. Agricultural portfolios can be created by mixing different crops and/or different climate zones, soils and cultivation practices. We also apply risk management to reduce price risk through… Continue reading RAW2020: Agricultural Risk Analysis: art and science – Ariadna Berger

RAW2020: How to use Value of Information to improve the decision policy in Oil and Gas? – Trygve Botn

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/how-to-use-value-of-information-to-improve-the-decision-policy-in-oil-and-gas/ This live Excel presentation will demonstrate how to: frame a Value of Imperfect Information evaluation of a drilling problem, quantify the frame in a risk model (SIPmath) using continuous variables, solve the problem frame using simulation to establish the decision policy and explain how we reduce downside and possibly increase the upside. We will… Continue reading RAW2020: How to use Value of Information to improve the decision policy in Oil and Gas? – Trygve Botn

3 steps to set corporate risk appetite

Ok, the title is obviously irony. If you have seen any of my posts you will know how sceptical I am of this management fad called risk appetite. I am actually old enough to remember when consultants started pushing this concept pretending it was both new and useful. Anyway, since the concept is unlikely to… Continue reading 3 steps to set corporate risk appetite

The amazing future of risk management – SIPs and SLURPs

  http://ProbabilityManagement.org advocates a corporate framework in which organizations maintain libraries of official distributions for key uncertain quantities, which can be exchanged between model builders so that all models rely on common assumptions. Each univariate Monte Carlo sample is collected into a unit called a Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), which is a textual XML snippet containing a… Continue reading The amazing future of risk management – SIPs and SLURPs

Real life application of quantitative risk analysis, an excellent case study

Can 17 risk managers double their money in just 2 days with no luck and using only quantitative risk analysis? Find out in this short case study. The problem  To test how well quantitative risk analysis performs I wanted a real life situations, where odds were known and the stakes were high. National lottery looked… Continue reading Real life application of quantitative risk analysis, an excellent case study

43. Using gamification in risk management – Alex Sidorenko

Risk Modelling Game 3.0 This game is the result of collaboration between Risk-academy, Palisade, Institute for Strategic Risk Analysis (ISAR) and Deloitte. Together we have created an amazing business game to teach non-financial management and staff how to perform risk modelling on day to day management decisions. You will have to play a role of… Continue reading 43. Using gamification in risk management – Alex Sidorenko