Warning when using Palisade PrecisionTree with @Risk

Warning! If you are using Palisade PrecisionTree together with @Risk using default settings the results are most likely inaccurate and missleading.

Konstantin Dozhdikov discovered that if you leave the default settings in PrecisionTree, then use it in conjunction with @Risk, the results will be incorrect and unrealistic. I have tested this using different version of Palisade Decision Tools and can confirm the results are completely misleading.

Good news, there is a simple solution. It is necessary to select the following items in the PrecisionTree settings (see the picture):


Check out other risk management books

The Standard for Risk Management in Portfolios, Programs, and Projects
Fundamentals of Risk Management: Understanding, Evaluating and Implementing Effective Risk Management
Implementing Enterprise Risk Management: From Methods to Applications (Wiley Finance)

If you have used Palisade PrecisionTree in conjunction with @Risk in the past, you need to recalculate and update your reports. If you advised clients, you need to make adjustments in past reports and presentations and issue corrections.

Palisade helped to sort out the problem and find a solution after some pressure from us, but we still do not understand why such a default setting was chosen and how this problem will be fixed in future releases.

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Управление рисками

В этом коротком и очень увлекательном курсе, Алексей Сидоренко расскажет о причинах внедрения риск менеджмента, об особенностях принятия управленческих решений в ситуации неопределенности и изменениях в новом стандарте ИСО 31000:2018.


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