Absolute triumph for the quantitative risk analysis – part 3/3

I started writing yet another article trying to convince risk managers to grow their quant competencies, to integrate risk analysis into decision-making processes and to use ranges instead of single point planning… but then I thought… why bother… why not show how risk analysis helps make better risk based decisions instead? After all, this is… Continue reading Absolute triumph for the quantitative risk analysis – part 3/3

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Skin in the game: can risk managers use their witchcraft to make money – part 2/3

I started writing yet another article trying to convince risk managers to grow their quant competencies, to integrate risk analysis into decision-making processes and to use ranges instead of single point planning… but then I thought… why bother… why not show how risk analysis helps make better risk based decisions instead? After all, this is… Continue reading Skin in the game: can risk managers use their witchcraft to make money – part 2/3

Book review: Winning conversations by Bryan Whitefield is very nice

I really enjoyed reading the new book “Winning conversations: How to turn red tape into blue ribbon” by Bryan Whitefield. Here are some of the reasons why: The message is very timely. Most of us already know how to run 10000 scenario simulations on business plans and budgets and how to get amazing insights for… Continue reading Book review: Winning conversations by Bryan Whitefield is very nice

Skin in the game: if risk managers are so smart why are they not millionaires?

I started writing yet another article trying to convince risk managers to grow their quant competencies, to integrate risk analysis into decision-making processes and to use ranges instead of single point planning… but then I thought… why bother… why not show how risk analysis helps make better risk based decisions instead? After all, this is… Continue reading Skin in the game: if risk managers are so smart why are they not millionaires?

Should it be objective-centric ERM or decision focused risk management or risk-based decision making or just decision making?

Couple of months ago I promised Hans Læssøe to respond to his article about the link between risk management and decision making. I finally managed to summarise my thoughts in this short video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHUW1Tecfac, but basically I believe risk management was hijacked by auditors and consultants approximately 30 years ago and turned into a joke and… Continue reading Should it be objective-centric ERM or decision focused risk management or risk-based decision making or just decision making?

Guest blog – Werner Gleissner – Risk management basics

The article clarifies the most essential methods for risk management. This includes especially the methods for identification, quantification and simulation based risk aggregation (e.g. monte carlo simulation). It is pointed up that an appropriate quantification of all relevant risks and a risk aggregation by the monte carlo simulation are both crucial for an efficient risk… Continue reading Guest blog – Werner Gleissner – Risk management basics

3 steps to make FAIR methodology so much better and avoid common pitfals

First, kudos to the FAIR team for nudging the IT community towards better risk analysis. I was first introduced to FAIR methodology approximately 2 years ago at the Copenhagen risk management conference. The timing was quite fortunate since we just finished a project quantifying intellectual property risks for a major telecom client in Russia. We… Continue reading 3 steps to make FAIR methodology so much better and avoid common pitfals

#ChangingRisk – Gerenciamento de risco costumava ser uma ciência, depois virou uma arte e agora?

Últimas visões de Alex Sidorenko sobre como a “inovação”, falta de competências e os consultores estão matando o gerenciamento de riscos em organizações não-financeiras e o que vem por aí atualizado em 2019 especificamente para Strategicrisk https://www.strategic-risk-europe.com/risk-management-used-to-be-a-science-then-it-became-an-art-whats-next/1429754.article. Primeiro havia ciência… Algumas fontes sugerem que a teoria da probabilidade surgiu nas apostas e nos seguros marítimos. Em ambos… Continue reading #ChangingRisk – Gerenciamento de risco costumava ser uma ciência, depois virou uma arte e agora?

Forget about risk management. Measure the likelihood of success instead. #ChangingRisk

My friend, Norman Marks, has been talking about rebranding risk management for years. Norman calls for risk professionals to focus on enabling success rather than avoiding failure. I think this is brillian advice. A way to communicate risk management insights to executives and the Board is to talk about the likelihood of success.  Well, the… Continue reading Forget about risk management. Measure the likelihood of success instead. #ChangingRisk