The importance of having FrankenSMEs during risk identification or decision making

Doug Hubbard, owner of Hubbard Decision Research, explains why subject matter experts must be calibrated like any other measurement instrument. Do you calibrate your subject matter experts (SMEs)? If not, you’re missing a critical risk management method that would have led to better decision making for your organisation, says Doug Hubbard, the author of ‘How… Continue reading The importance of having FrankenSMEs during risk identification or decision making

Why every risk manager must be using Monte Carlo modelling to evaluate effect of risks

Given the uncertainties businesses have faced as result of the Covid-19 pandemic, it’s hardly surprising many are looking to improve how they do risk management. According to Duncan Harwood, managing director of 2020 Risk Management, introducing Monte Carlo simulation one of the best steps a business can take to improve its risk management processes. Giving… Continue reading Why every risk manager must be using Monte Carlo modelling to evaluate effect of risks

The wisdom of knowing how little you know – best workshops at RAW2020

Speaking at Risk Awareness Week, Max Henrion founder and CEO of Lumina Decision Systems, described the power of uncertainty modelling and when risk managers should apply a stochastic lens for decision-making. When you’ve got to catch an early morning flight – how much time do you leave to get to the airport? This was the… Continue reading The wisdom of knowing how little you know – best workshops at RAW2020

45 risk management and decision making workshops available on demand

Every year I ask the best quant risk and decision making professionals I can find to share their models, simulations, methodologies and case studies with the public. We call it RISK AWARENESS WEEK and it runs for a week in October. Every year more than 3000 participants from 100+ countries take part and 2020 was… Continue reading 45 risk management and decision making workshops available on demand

Recommended pre-reading for the RAW2020 conference

RAW2020 is less than a month away and I wanted to share something valuable with you. During the conference you will hear many of the speakers talk about Risk Management 2 (RM2), decision science, decision quality, probability theory and other terms unfamiliar to many risk practitioners or business decision makers. These 3 things will help… Continue reading Recommended pre-reading for the RAW2020 conference

RAW2020: The Cat Insurance Puzzle: Why People insure their Cellphone but not their Home

The cat insurance puzzle refers to the low or missing demand for high-severity-low-probability events, which is surprising given the high demand for low-value insurance products such as cell phone insurance policies. While the loss of a cellphone is usually an event of no or low consequence, the loss of a home to a family or… Continue reading RAW2020: The Cat Insurance Puzzle: Why People insure their Cellphone but not their Home

RAW2020: The Failure of Risk Management

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/the-failure-of-risk-management/ Choices to make for your company or organization can seem overwhelming at times and the answers to hard questions may seem impossible to find. Whether your uncertain decisions are in a small company assessing a critical market opportunity, a Fortune 100 company implementing an enterprise-wide process to prioritize an entire portfolio of projects, or… Continue reading RAW2020: The Failure of Risk Management

RAW2020: Making decisions unburdened by ‘risk management’ myths

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/risk-management-myths/ Grant Purdy and Roger Estall During long careers we have often been engaged to investigate decisions that have gone spectacularly wrong or resulted in other than the intended outcomes. This has helped us develop an objective appreciation of what ‘good’ decision-making looks like and therefore, what characterizes a ‘good’ decision. This workshop will describe… Continue reading RAW2020: Making decisions unburdened by ‘risk management’ myths

Your kids are not taught risk management at school, you have to do it

I wanted to start with some typical math problems in school: Two cars started from the same point, at 5 am, travelling in opposite directions at 40 and 50 mph respectively. At what time will they be 450 miles apart? At 9 am a car (A) began a journey from a point, travelling at 40 mph. At… Continue reading Your kids are not taught risk management at school, you have to do it

Why risk community rejects science, logic and common sense

First, I wanted to share an extract from the book I am reading at the moment Alchemy: The Dark Art and Curious Science of Creating Magic in Brands, Business, and Life The chapter is called “I Know It Works in Practice, but Does It Work in Theory? On John Harrison, Semmelweis and the Electronic Cigarette”… Continue reading Why risk community rejects science, logic and common sense