92. Why risk managers need to understand cognitive biases

Alex Sidorenko from RISK-ACADEMY talks about cognitive biases and why it is important for corporate risk managers to understand them and know how to work around them or limit their influence on decision makers. What do you think? – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – At… Continue reading 92. Why risk managers need to understand cognitive biases

54. Cognitive biases in risk management – Framing – Alex Sidorenko

The framing effect is an example of cognitive bias, in which people react to a particular choice in different ways depending on how it is presented; e.g. as a loss or as a gain.[1] People tend to avoid risk when a positive frame is presented but seek risks when a negative frame is presented.[2] Gain… Continue reading 54. Cognitive biases in risk management – Framing – Alex Sidorenko

54. Cognitive biases in risk management – Confirmation bias – Alex Sidorenko

Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias,[Note 1] is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities.[1] It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. People display… Continue reading 54. Cognitive biases in risk management – Confirmation bias – Alex Sidorenko

52. Cognitive biases in risk management – Déformation professionnelle – Alex Sidorenko

Déformation professionnelle is a French phrase, meaning a tendency to look at things from the point of view of one’s own profession rather than from a broader perspective. It is often translated as “professional deformation” or “job conditioning,” though French déformation can also be translated as “distortion.” The implication is that professional training, and its… Continue reading 52. Cognitive biases in risk management – Déformation professionnelle – Alex Sidorenko

51. Cognitive biases in risk management – Neglect of probability – Alex Sidorenko

The neglect of probability, a type of cognitive bias, is the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty and is one simple way in which people regularly violate the normative rules for decision making. Small risks are typically either neglected entirely or hugely overrated. The continuum between the extremes is ignored.… Continue reading 51. Cognitive biases in risk management – Neglect of probability – Alex Sidorenko

49. Cognitive biases in risk management – Normalcy bias – Alex Sidorenko

The normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare and, on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace… Continue reading 49. Cognitive biases in risk management – Normalcy bias – Alex Sidorenko

48. Cognitive biases in risk management – Overconfidence – Alex Sidorenko

The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person’s subjective confidence in his or her judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high. Throughout the research literature, overconfidence has been defined in three distinct ways: (1) overestimation of one’s actual performance; (2) overplacement of… Continue reading 48. Cognitive biases in risk management – Overconfidence – Alex Sidorenko

If cognitive biases in decision making are a given, how do risk managers overcome them?

If we accept there is a cognitive bias in decision making, how can we as risk professionals account for this and help our senior executive make better bias-free decisions? Risk Academy’s Alex Sidorenko discusses. Originally published for Knowledge@StrategicRisk https://www.strategicrisk-asiapacific.com/the-knowledge/overcoming-cognitive-bias-in-senior-executives/1428016.article   The earliest psychometric research was performed by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman (who later won a Nobel… Continue reading If cognitive biases in decision making are a given, how do risk managers overcome them?

3 fatal mistakes corporate risk managers make (part 2)

A while back I wrote an article about 3 fatal mistakes risk consultants make https://riskacademy.blog/2017/01/14/3-fatal-mistakes-most-risk-consultants-make. It made quite an impact and was republished in Australia, Canada, Singapore and Europe with dozens of thousands of views. I feel it’s only fair to write a follow up article about the 3 more mistakes that risk managers themselves… Continue reading 3 fatal mistakes corporate risk managers make (part 2)

FREE WEBINAR: 4 practical steps to move from standalone risk management to risk-based decision making

Risk management is changing with more than ever focus on integration and human culture and cognitive aspects. It sounds obvious, but is it really? Here is a quick test: Which typical risk management element/tool has the least amount of value? Risk management framework Quarterly risk assessment workshops Risk reports Risk registers Heat maps? In my… Continue reading FREE WEBINAR: 4 practical steps to move from standalone risk management to risk-based decision making