Let’s face it – one of the biggest excuses risk managers use to avoid quantitative analysis is the paralysis that comes from choosing the “right” probability distribution. The selection options in ModelRisk can make your head spin: Overwhelming, right? And that’s just one tool. The @RISK plugin also has over 90 distribution functions! It’s like being… Continue reading You don’t need to worry about which distribution to use any more
Tag: Uncertainty
Help unlock the power of uncertainty: Why I think Excel needs probabilistic calculations
Whether we like it or not, Excel spreadsheets are the backbone of countless businesses and organizations. They drive projections, inform decisions, and model all sorts of processes. But there’s a fundamental limitation – Excel is deterministic. Just one limitation, you say. I hear you, there are plenty of limitations, but this one is a true… Continue reading Help unlock the power of uncertainty: Why I think Excel needs probabilistic calculations
3 steps to set corporate risk appetite
Ok, the title is obviously irony. If you have seen any of my posts you will know how sceptical I am of this management fad called risk appetite. I am actually old enough to remember when consultants started pushing this concept pretending it was both new and useful. Anyway, since the concept is unlikely to… Continue reading 3 steps to set corporate risk appetite
Risk appetite reimagined 2.0
This was the original post that was triggered a lot of discussion around the concept of risk appetite in non-financial companies. Again. I semi-changed my mind on risk appetite. Separate risk appetite statements are still stupid (because there is a better way), but despite that risk appetites should be calculated. Because if done properly there… Continue reading Risk appetite reimagined 2.0
The whole concept of risk-appetite is total nonsense
The concept of risk-appetite has been around for years, yet so many risk practitioners still find themselves confused and unsure how to quantify, formalize and document it. Well, the short answer is YOU DON’T NEED TO. There is a better way. First, disclaimers. The following article only applies to non-financial companies, just like everything else… Continue reading The whole concept of risk-appetite is total nonsense
Risk management used to be a science, then it became an art, now it’s just bullsh@t
Latest views from Alex Sidorenko on how “innovation”, lack of business acumen and consultants are killing modern risk management in non-financial organizations. First there was science… Some sources suggest probability theory started in gambling and maritime insurance. In both cases the science was primarily used to help people and companies make better decision and hence… Continue reading Risk management used to be a science, then it became an art, now it’s just bullsh@t
