https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/addressing-the-failure-of-risk-quantification-moving-from-speculating-on-project-complexity-to-actually-quantifying-it/ This report is based on the author’s recent book ‘Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies’ published by Oxford University Press this year. Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both Monte Carlo and especially parametric methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in the… Continue reading Addressing the Failure of Risk Quantification: Moving from Speculating on Project Complexity to Actually Quantifying It
The COVID-19 pandemic is taking a heavy toll on people’s health, lives, and societies. Lots of us have felt worried about the coronavirus pandemic, and everyone will feel differently about the changes to lockdown restrictions. If you have lost a job as a result of COVID-19 we would like to offer you free full access… Continue reading Free access to RAW2020 to anyone who lost a job due to COVID-19
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/covid-19-how-did-we-get-here-where-and-how-do-we-go-from-here/ The spread of viral disease (COVID-19) was the last snowflake that caused the avalanche of global proportion. The inter-relationship of nonfinancial risks resulted in the new reality that we are now living through. This session will examine the inter-relationships of global risks and trends that existed at the end of 2019, and will demonstrate… Continue reading RAW2020: COVID-19: How did we get here? Where and how do we go from here?
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/complexity-moving-beyond-talk/ Most of us have read about or heard talks on “complexity”; its nature, its impact on projects and ways to deal with it. Many have also worked on complex projects that are all too often failures, if not disasters. What has been missing are practical ways to measure complexity and quantify its impacts; we… Continue reading RAW2020: Complexity: Moving Beyond Talk
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/risk-awareness-and-culture/ If the Covid19 pandemic has revealed anything, it is that many individuals and organisations suffer from the illusion of control – that is, that certainty is largely achievable and desirable. While (most!) risk professionals know that this isn’t the case, a vast majority of individuals don’t. However, when uncertainty is revealed as a constant… Continue reading RAW2020: Death, Taxes and Uncertainty – The Myth of Control
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/create-an-excel-model-and-evaluate-using-decision-analysis-and-monte-carlo-practices-the-case-study-framed-in-session-1/ Join Brian Putt and Alex Sidorenko in this second session where we create and Excel model for the case study framed in Session 1 using Decision Quality practices and Monte Carlo to complete the evaluation. Watch session 1 first at https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/experience-a-practical-example-of-applying-decision-quality-framing-practices-to-a-case-study/ Alex, acting as the subject matter expert (SME) reviews and adjust the inputs… Continue reading RAW2020: Create an Excel model and evaluate using Decision Analysis and Monte Carlo practices the case study framed in Session 1
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/uncertainty-based-capacity-optimization/ Most companies apply capacity planning to define when to invest in what equipment in order to be able to meet demand. For most companies, this is done using a sales plan/forecast which is then regarded as equalling the future demand based upon which a capacity profile is calculated. Uncertainty is catered for by applying… Continue reading RAW2020: Uncertainty based capacity optimization
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/risk-based-decision-making/ Matrix style risk analysis are sure to fail you when it really matters, such as when you plan a daring criminal venture. This quantitative risk assessment workshop is an introduction for people who are not risk analysts or for qualitative risk managers that are willing to dive in. We will tackle how we could… Continue reading RAW2020: Introduction to using QRA for nefarious decision making.
The cat insurance puzzle refers to the low or missing demand for high-severity-low-probability events, which is surprising given the high demand for low-value insurance products such as cell phone insurance policies. While the loss of a cellphone is usually an event of no or low consequence, the loss of a home to a family or… Continue reading RAW2020: The Cat Insurance Puzzle: Why People insure their Cellphone but not their Home
https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/the-failure-of-risk-management/ Choices to make for your company or organization can seem overwhelming at times and the answers to hard questions may seem impossible to find. Whether your uncertain decisions are in a small company assessing a critical market opportunity, a Fortune 100 company implementing an enterprise-wide process to prioritize an entire portfolio of projects, or… Continue reading RAW2020: The Failure of Risk Management