RAW2021 – Increasing the Probability of Program Success Starting with Risk Management

There are Five Immutable Principles of program success, starting with knowing what Done looks like in units of measure meaningful to the decision-makers. In order to successfully deliver the Capabilities to implement Done, risks to that success must be identified and handled. This talk described how “risk handling” strategies are developed and applied to complex… Continue reading RAW2021 – Increasing the Probability of Program Success Starting with Risk Management

RAW2021 – How to spot and avoid three major risk measurement fallacies

Using real-world commercial and open-source examples from the Travel Risk Intelligence and Duty of Care industry, this workshop will highlight three of the most common risk measurement flaws and fallacies: – nominal and ordinal scales – the flaw of averages – judgment noise and bias We will demonstrate the effects of the above on individual… Continue reading RAW2021 – How to spot and avoid three major risk measurement fallacies

RAW2021 – Chance-Informed Healthcare Resource Management in the Face of Pandemic Uncertainty

Managing healthcare resources under uncertain COVID-19 surges is difficult and it is tempting to plan for surges in demand based on the average or best guesses of contagion forecast models. Unfortunately, this leads to systematic errors induced by the Flaw of Averages. We will show how the discipline of probability management can transform the uncertainty… Continue reading RAW2021 – Chance-Informed Healthcare Resource Management in the Face of Pandemic Uncertainty

RAW2021 – Red is the new Green – How thinking different helps risk management to adapt to tomorrow’s challenges

In traditional risk management, you make decisions based on knowledge from the past. Presently, you process and react by looking into the future. You might call your approach logical if it aligns with your goals. But rational thinking is only part of the story; it never told you how to get to your destination. You… Continue reading RAW2021 – Red is the new Green – How thinking different helps risk management to adapt to tomorrow’s challenges

RAW2021 – How expert are your experts?

Whenever subject matter experts make quantitative assessments in a business process, we check those assessments after the fact and report back on precision and bias so that our SMEs can improve their future assessments. This is rather more difficult where the assessments are probabilities because the verification is necessarily statistical. Traditional methods can reveal optimism… Continue reading RAW2021 – How expert are your experts?

RAW2021 – The impact that situations have on our behavior and what we can do about it

Research shows us that the context that we are in, both the physical and social environment, has a significant impact on our behavior. We talk more quietly in a library than in a bar. We look up at the sky because we see someone else doing it. While this may seem trivial, these small contextual… Continue reading RAW2021 – The impact that situations have on our behavior and what we can do about it

RAW2021 – What you see is all there is – how perception impacts how we see risk

Much of the work done to mitigate risk, begins with data — by quantifying risk, we feel better able to manage it. But even with data, we need to make judgements and some risks don’t lend themselves to easy quantification. So what role might perception play in driving our risk management decisions? In this talk,… Continue reading RAW2021 – What you see is all there is – how perception impacts how we see risk

RAW2021 – The next phase of FrankenSME: The latest developments in combining expert judgements

Last year Hubbard Decision Research (HDR) presented the potential value of new methods for aggregating expert estimates. Now the HDR tool has been completed. Decades of experiments by researchers have shown that subjective assessment of probabilities is both a teachable skill and that combining the estimates of multiple subject matter experts (SMEs) can further improve… Continue reading RAW2021 – The next phase of FrankenSME: The latest developments in combining expert judgements

RAW2021 – Which risks should a business focus on?

The IPCC 2021 report on climate change makes for very sober reading. We are destroying the environments that support us, and we are doing it with increasing rapidity. Businesses must play a central role in at least slowing down this erosion and the closely related societal impacts. Regulators around the world are looking at introducing… Continue reading RAW2021 – Which risks should a business focus on?