RAW2020: Death, Taxes and Uncertainty – The Myth of Control

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/risk-awareness-and-culture/ If the Covid19 pandemic has revealed anything, it is that many individuals and organisations suffer from the illusion of control – that is, that certainty is largely achievable and desirable. While (most!) risk professionals know that this isn’t the case, a vast majority of individuals don’t. However, when uncertainty is revealed as a constant… Continue reading RAW2020: Death, Taxes and Uncertainty – The Myth of Control

RAW2020: Create an Excel model and evaluate using Decision Analysis and Monte Carlo practices the case study framed in Session 1

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/create-an-excel-model-and-evaluate-using-decision-analysis-and-monte-carlo-practices-the-case-study-framed-in-session-1/ Join Brian Putt and Alex Sidorenko in this second session where we create and Excel model for the case study framed in Session 1 using Decision Quality practices and Monte Carlo to complete the evaluation. Watch session 1 first at https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/experience-a-practical-example-of-applying-decision-quality-framing-practices-to-a-case-study/ Alex, acting as the subject matter expert (SME) reviews and adjust the inputs… Continue reading RAW2020: Create an Excel model and evaluate using Decision Analysis and Monte Carlo practices the case study framed in Session 1

RAW2020: Uncertainty based capacity optimization

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/uncertainty-based-capacity-optimization/ Most companies apply capacity planning to define when to invest in what equipment in order to be able to meet demand. For most companies, this is done using a sales plan/forecast which is then regarded as equalling the future demand based upon which a capacity profile is calculated. Uncertainty is catered for by applying… Continue reading RAW2020: Uncertainty based capacity optimization

RAW2020: Introduction to using QRA for nefarious decision making.

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/risk-based-decision-making/ Matrix style risk analysis are sure to fail you when it really matters, such as when you plan a daring criminal venture. This quantitative risk assessment workshop is an introduction for people who are not risk analysts or for qualitative risk managers that are willing to dive in. We will tackle how we could… Continue reading RAW2020: Introduction to using QRA for nefarious decision making.

RAW2020: The Cat Insurance Puzzle: Why People insure their Cellphone but not their Home

The cat insurance puzzle refers to the low or missing demand for high-severity-low-probability events, which is surprising given the high demand for low-value insurance products such as cell phone insurance policies. While the loss of a cellphone is usually an event of no or low consequence, the loss of a home to a family or… Continue reading RAW2020: The Cat Insurance Puzzle: Why People insure their Cellphone but not their Home

RAW2020: The Failure of Risk Management

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/the-failure-of-risk-management/ Choices to make for your company or organization can seem overwhelming at times and the answers to hard questions may seem impossible to find. Whether your uncertain decisions are in a small company assessing a critical market opportunity, a Fortune 100 company implementing an enterprise-wide process to prioritize an entire portfolio of projects, or… Continue reading RAW2020: The Failure of Risk Management

RAW2020: Why consider uncertainty? The value of knowing how little you know

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/why-consider-uncertainty-the-value-of-knowing-how-little-you-know/ What time should you leave to catch a plane flight? We all know intuitively to leave extra time for traffic and other uncertainties. But, how much time? Most risk analyses still ignore uncertainty, using single estimates of frequency and consequence. When is it worth the effort to estimate the uncertainties explicitly? I’ll introduce the… Continue reading RAW2020: Why consider uncertainty? The value of knowing how little you know

RAW2020: Making decisions unburdened by ‘risk management’ myths

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/risk-management-myths/ Grant Purdy and Roger Estall During long careers we have often been engaged to investigate decisions that have gone spectacularly wrong or resulted in other than the intended outcomes. This has helped us develop an objective appreciation of what ‘good’ decision-making looks like and therefore, what characterizes a ‘good’ decision. This workshop will describe… Continue reading RAW2020: Making decisions unburdened by ‘risk management’ myths

Your kids are not taught risk management at school, you have to do it

I wanted to start with some typical math problems in school: Two cars started from the same point, at 5 am, travelling in opposite directions at 40 and 50 mph respectively. At what time will they be 450 miles apart? At 9 am a car (A) began a journey from a point, travelling at 40 mph. At… Continue reading Your kids are not taught risk management at school, you have to do it

RAW2020 – Behind the scenes

The challenge Alex Sidorenko has been working in risk management, a relatively small field in quantitative decision making, for 15 years. His speciality lies in the statistics, math and decision-making disciplines. Travelling to speak at conferences was a major part of his role as Head of Risk at large corporations and later as freelance risk… Continue reading RAW2020 – Behind the scenes