Mark Powell – The lost art of building risk matrices and why they should be avoided

Risk matrices have been around for decades, but most people don’t build their own anymore. In fact, Mark Powell told an audience at Risk Awareness Week 2020 that he hadn’t met anybody in 25 years who had built a risk matrix from scratch, with many outsourcing the job to consultants instead. So why does this… Continue reading Mark Powell – The lost art of building risk matrices and why they should be avoided

Compliance Risk Management – Risk analysis (part 1)

Wherever possible companies should apply quantitative risk analysis to measure and prioritize compliance risks. Wait what? We can do better than a compliance heatmap? Apparently :)) The following information should be collected and recorded for each identified risk: Possible consequence scenarios as described in the legislation or other regulatory requirements (usually includes fines, 3rd party… Continue reading Compliance Risk Management – Risk analysis (part 1)

Max Henrion – The wisdom of knowing how little you know

Speaking at Risk Awareness Week, Max Henrion founder and CEO of Lumina Decision Systems, described the power of uncertainty modelling and when risk managers should apply a stochastic lens for decision-making. When you’ve got to catch an early morning flight – how much time do you leave to get to the airport? This was the… Continue reading Max Henrion – The wisdom of knowing how little you know

45 risk management and decision making workshops available on demand

Every year I ask the best quant risk and decision making professionals I can find to share their models, simulations, methodologies and case studies with the public. We call it RISK AWARENESS WEEK and it runs for a week in October. Every year more than 3000 participants from 100+ countries take part and 2020 was… Continue reading 45 risk management and decision making workshops available on demand

Learn how crowd-sourcing risks works at RAW2020

Near or far: we are together in this COVID-19 crisis. We see increasing levels of sharing and caring across the globe. We are all uplifted by a more robust understanding of our interconnectedness. We saw countries re-opening while COVID-19 was still circulating widely. Now some of them face strong waves of virus resurgence and have… Continue reading Learn how crowd-sourcing risks works at RAW2020

RAW2020: Probability for Pragmatists

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/managing-irreducible-risks-through-portfolio-analysis-hedging-and-diversification/ The success of quantitative risk management rests on our ability to assess probabilities, but what is a probability anyway? How do you know if your assessments are any good and what does it even mean to say there’s a 50% chance of rain tomorrow? A pragmatic approach to these questions quickly takes us in… Continue reading RAW2020: Probability for Pragmatists

RAW2020: Introduction to using QRA for nefarious decision making.

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/risk-based-decision-making/ Matrix style risk analysis are sure to fail you when it really matters, such as when you plan a daring criminal venture. This quantitative risk assessment workshop is an introduction for people who are not risk analysts or for qualitative risk managers that are willing to dive in. We will tackle how we could… Continue reading RAW2020: Introduction to using QRA for nefarious decision making.

RAW2020: The Failure of Risk Management

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/the-failure-of-risk-management/ Choices to make for your company or organization can seem overwhelming at times and the answers to hard questions may seem impossible to find. Whether your uncertain decisions are in a small company assessing a critical market opportunity, a Fortune 100 company implementing an enterprise-wide process to prioritize an entire portfolio of projects, or… Continue reading RAW2020: The Failure of Risk Management

Why risk community rejects science, logic and common sense

First, I wanted to share an extract from the book I am reading at the moment Alchemy: The Dark Art and Curious Science of Creating Magic in Brands, Business, and Life The chapter is called “I Know It Works in Practice, but Does It Work in Theory? On John Harrison, Semmelweis and the Electronic Cigarette”… Continue reading Why risk community rejects science, logic and common sense

3 steps to apply Monte-Carlo simulations to any investment project decision

Risk management 2 shouldn’t be difficult. So I started on a quest to come up with a simple methodology for quantitative risk analysis that will actually improve decision making. This is still work in progress, so any comments and suggestions please send them to me or write below the article. Also don’t forget, RAW2020 is… Continue reading 3 steps to apply Monte-Carlo simulations to any investment project decision