Recommended pre-reading for the RAW2020 conference

RAW2020 is less than a month away and I wanted to share something valuable with you. During the conference you will hear many of the speakers talk about Risk Management 2 (RM2), decision science, decision quality, probability theory and other terms unfamiliar to many risk practitioners or business decision makers. These 3 things will help… Continue reading Recommended pre-reading for the RAW2020 conference

Addressing the Failure of Risk Quantification: Moving from Speculating on Project Complexity to Actually Quantifying It

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/addressing-the-failure-of-risk-quantification-moving-from-speculating-on-project-complexity-to-actually-quantifying-it/ This report is based on the author’s recent book ‘Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies’ published by Oxford University Press this year. Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both Monte Carlo and especially parametric methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in the… Continue reading Addressing the Failure of Risk Quantification: Moving from Speculating on Project Complexity to Actually Quantifying It

RAW2020: Complexity: Moving Beyond Talk

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/complexity-moving-beyond-talk/ Most of us have read about or heard talks on “complexity”; its nature, its impact on projects and ways to deal with it. Many have also worked on complex projects that are all too often failures, if not disasters. What has been missing are practical ways to measure complexity and quantify its impacts; we… Continue reading RAW2020: Complexity: Moving Beyond Talk

RAW2020: Introduction to using QRA for nefarious decision making.

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/risk-based-decision-making/ Matrix style risk analysis are sure to fail you when it really matters, such as when you plan a daring criminal venture. This quantitative risk assessment workshop is an introduction for people who are not risk analysts or for qualitative risk managers that are willing to dive in. We will tackle how we could… Continue reading RAW2020: Introduction to using QRA for nefarious decision making.

RAW2020: The Failure of Risk Management

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/the-failure-of-risk-management/ Choices to make for your company or organization can seem overwhelming at times and the answers to hard questions may seem impossible to find. Whether your uncertain decisions are in a small company assessing a critical market opportunity, a Fortune 100 company implementing an enterprise-wide process to prioritize an entire portfolio of projects, or… Continue reading RAW2020: The Failure of Risk Management

RAW2020: Why consider uncertainty? The value of knowing how little you know

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/why-consider-uncertainty-the-value-of-knowing-how-little-you-know/ What time should you leave to catch a plane flight? We all know intuitively to leave extra time for traffic and other uncertainties. But, how much time? Most risk analyses still ignore uncertainty, using single estimates of frequency and consequence. When is it worth the effort to estimate the uncertainties explicitly? I’ll introduce the… Continue reading RAW2020: Why consider uncertainty? The value of knowing how little you know

RAW2020: Making decisions unburdened by ‘risk management’ myths

https://2020.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/risk-management-myths/ Grant Purdy and Roger Estall During long careers we have often been engaged to investigate decisions that have gone spectacularly wrong or resulted in other than the intended outcomes. This has helped us develop an objective appreciation of what ‘good’ decision-making looks like and therefore, what characterizes a ‘good’ decision. This workshop will describe… Continue reading RAW2020: Making decisions unburdened by ‘risk management’ myths

Your kids are not taught risk management at school, you have to do it

I wanted to start with some typical math problems in school: Two cars started from the same point, at 5 am, travelling in opposite directions at 40 and 50 mph respectively. At what time will they be 450 miles apart? At 9 am a car (A) began a journey from a point, travelling at 40 mph. At… Continue reading Your kids are not taught risk management at school, you have to do it

3 steps to apply Monte-Carlo simulations to any investment project decision

Risk management 2 shouldn’t be difficult. So I started on a quest to come up with a simple methodology for quantitative risk analysis that will actually improve decision making. This is still work in progress, so any comments and suggestions please send them to me or write below the article. Also don’t forget, RAW2020 is… Continue reading 3 steps to apply Monte-Carlo simulations to any investment project decision

5 reasons why internal auditors need to attend #RAW2020

Risk Management Awareness Week from 12 to 16 October 2020 is a perfect place for internal auditors to learn. Risk Awareness Week RAW2020 brings some of the leading risk management researchers and practitioners to your computer or mobile phone. It is designed to raise awareness about risk management application in planning, forecasting, budgeting, construction, investments… Continue reading 5 reasons why internal auditors need to attend #RAW2020