When uncertainty becomes a competitive advantage rather than a compliance exercise Risk management delivers hard cash savings when it quantifies uncertainty in operational and financial decisions. Organizations that integrate probabilistic thinking into credit management, operations, capital allocation, and insurance purchasing consistently reduce losses, free up trapped capital, and outperform competitors still relying on ERM nonsense.… Continue reading How Risk Management Creates Immediate Economic Value
Tag: Monte Carlo simulation
Stop avoiding the risk quantification elephant in the room
In a profession dedicated to identifying and managing uncertainty, there exists a puzzling contradiction: many managers actively avoid quantifying the very risks they’re tasked with. You probably know risk managers like that, we all do. While quantitative risk analysis forms the foundation of effective decision-making under uncertainty (see any textbook on decision science), it remains… Continue reading Stop avoiding the risk quantification elephant in the room
Quant models overthrow traditional risk management: embrace or perish?
In my last job as a Head of operational risk and insurance, I needed a team of 3 quants to build risk models to support decisions, quantify expected losses and calculate expected shortfalls. In my current job, as Head of risk, insurance and internal audit, I can do all this with with 2 AI models,… Continue reading Quant models overthrow traditional risk management: embrace or perish?
Help unlock the power of uncertainty: Why I think Excel needs probabilistic calculations
Whether we like it or not, Excel spreadsheets are the backbone of countless businesses and organizations. They drive projections, inform decisions, and model all sorts of processes. But there’s a fundamental limitation – Excel is deterministic. Just one limitation, you say. I hear you, there are plenty of limitations, but this one is a true… Continue reading Help unlock the power of uncertainty: Why I think Excel needs probabilistic calculations
3 steps to apply Monte-Carlo simulations to any investment project decision
Risk management 2 shouldn’t be difficult. So I started on a quest to come up with a simple methodology for quantitative risk analysis that will actually improve decision making. This is still work in progress, so any comments and suggestions please send them to me or write below the article. Also don’t forget, RAW2020 is… Continue reading 3 steps to apply Monte-Carlo simulations to any investment project decision
